The month of July starts this up coming Saturday, which means that we are right at the halfway point in the MLB season. The trade deadline is 36 days away, and it’s time for everybody to get serious. There’s no more time to ‘wait things out’ or ‘see what you have’, it’s time to make a decision about buying or selling.
Now, if you go read other people’s trade deadline articles, they’ll talk about teams that need to buy, sell, or hold. Having been a fan of a team that has “held” now for umpteen straight trade deadlines, the idea of standing pat during this time period is stupid to me.
That being said, I believe that every team in Major League Baseball either needs to buy or sell, no in between. So let’s get real about things, and I’ll start with a team that I know needs to get serious about winning.
The Houston Astros.
It’s time for the Astros to stop planning for the future because the future is here. Houston is 52-25, unequivocally the best team in baseball right now, and their time has come. The prospects have arrived, and Houston’s winning window is wide open.
The thing that a lot of teams don’t seem to understand about winning windows is that they don’t stay open. In 2012, the Nationals won 98 games and then decided to sit Stephen Strasburg for the entirety of the playoffs because they figured they’d be right back there next year and wanted Strasburg healthy for that run.
Those 98 win Nationals were bounced in the first round of the playoffs and missed the playoffs the next year. World Series opportunities don’t grow on trees, and it’s time for everyone to realize that.
That being said, Houston needs to go all in. Don’t protect your top prospects like Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker and continue planning for the future. Your future is staring you in the face, and a guy like Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana is out there just waiting to be the missing piece in a World Series run.
If Houston holds onto their top prospects and doesn’t push to improve the team by trading for a young, controllable starting pitcher, they’ve failed the deadline and only have themselves to blame when their World Series run doesn’t come to fruition.
Next up is a team that a lot of people think needs to hold, but I think needs to commit to a clear direction. The New York Mets need to sell, and they need to sell hard.
I’m not talking about giving up expendable pieces like Asdrubal Cabrera or Neil Walker, get crazy. The Mets are stuck in between right now, they’re a team with a lot of potential that has yet to truly crack it after a 2015 World Series run. So, move on from the core of players that has failed you.
Take some of that starting pitching wealth and move it for future position player studs. Take advantage of Houston’s presumed desire for a young starting pitcher and offer them Steven Matz or even Jacob DeGrom for a hefty haul of position player prospects.
Commit to a direction, and make that direction ‘winning in the future.’
I’m not interested in going over a plan for every single team this trade deadline, but the point of this article is that I’m sick of MLB teams ‘standing pat’ at the deadline.
The Chicago Cubs stormed their way to a World Series title last year and appeared set up for one of the most dominant stretches of baseball in the league’s history. This year, their pitching has collapsed, Kyle Schwarber has seemingly forgot how to hit, and the team is barely floating above the .500 mark.
The Mets appeared ready to rule over the National League with an iron fist when they marched their way to the World Series in 2015. 2 years later, they can’t stay healthy and are sitting in a distant 4th place in the NL East.
Consistent winning baseball is something that takes a tricky balance of luck, circumstance, and the intentional building of a winning team. Winning can happen suddenly, and a collapse of that same winning team can happen just as quickly.
Baseball is a fickle beast, and that’s the way the game goes.
For teams that appear set up to ‘hold’ at the deadline, this is my plea to your front office to reconsider that approach. Let’s take the Milwaukee Brewers as an example.
The Brewers are a surprise leader in the NL Central thus far, and they show no signs of slowing back down to the rest of the division. Now, it seems like the most sensible thing for the Brewers to do would be to sit pat, let this year’s team play things out, and then still hold onto your prospects and then plan to win in the future.
However, take a look at the landscape of the league. The Chicago Cubs, a dynasty in the making, are having a down year. The NL Central appears as winnable as it might be for the next decade. It’s sitting there just waiting for the Brewers to take it and nobody knows how things will look in the future. The Brewers could collapse, none of their prospects could pan out, and they could have to rebuild again.
This might be their best shot to win the Central, so why not go for it?
The Rockies are in a similar situation. The Rockies haven’t had a winning season since 2007, and they have proven to be as unstable a team as any in Major League Baseball, so why not go for it while you have the team?
Same with the Diamondbacks. Arizona seemed like they had a winning team last year, and then lost AJ Pollock to a preseason elbow injury and watched their season turn into a 96 loss fiasco. So, again, while your team is in prime playoff position, why not go for it?
The goal of the game is to win the World Series. The trade deadline is a prime time to make or break that goal. Making a positive trade could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and once you’re in there, anything can happen.
I firmly believe that every team in position to seriously challenge for a playoff spot absolutely needs to go for it and buy at the deadline. Not stupidly buy and totally mortgage the future, but just don’t sit pat and let your current team be the one that you head into the final few months with.
And, for every team not in a playoff contending position, why sit around with the same team and just keep losing? Why not commit to building for the future and plan on winning in the next years?
The idea of it just seems so simple to me after watching years of fickle baseball. If you can win, go for it and win. If you can’t win, make moves so that you can win in the future. If you’re stuck in between, commit to a direction and make moves that fit that direction.
Just, enough of this ‘standing pat’ stuff.
Thanks for reading.