More Tyler O’Neill’s: A Sequel

On yesterday’s episode of, ‘Ryan is the GM of the Cardinals’, I traded away Kolten Wong to Oakland in exchange for Matt Chapman and I also sent Jedd Gyorko and Trevor Rosenthal to Tampa Bay in exchange for Willy Adames.

My trade deadline goal remains to sell 2017’s expendable parts in exchange for pieces that will help the Cardinals win in 2018 and beyond. So, with all this in mind, let’s take a look at who is still left in my ‘sell’ pile, shall we?

The most simple player in the pile is Lance Lynn, so let’s start there.

Lynn is set to become a free agent at the end of 2017 and he surely won’t re-sign with the Cardinals. For starters, St. Louis has a wealth of pitching talent just waiting for an opportunity to take Lynn’s rotation spot. Alex Reyes is presumably first in line, closely followed by Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, and Dakota Hudson among others.

Secondly, with Lynn’s track record of quality, (career 3.37 FIP while averaging 191 IP in each of his 4 full seasons as a starter) he will likely be able to command money on the open market the Cardinals won’t be willing to pay him with so many younger, cheaper options available.

Lance Lynn
Photo courtesy of St. Louis Cardinals

The course of action is simple here. With a 3.30 ERA in 114 IP so far this season, Lynn poses as an attractive piece for one of 2017’s many contending teams in dire need of starting pitching help. Houston needs pitching help, Milwaukee needs pitching, the Cubs need pitching, but I’ve got my eyes on two teams and I want a bidding war between them.

With today’s news that Clayton Kershaw will be out for 4-6 weeks with back trouble, the Los Angeles Dodgers suddenly have a real need for starting pitching. Pair them up with a New York Yankees team desperately trying to catch the Boston Red Sox and we’re in business.

From both of their perspectives, Lynn makes a lot of sense both during and beyond 2017. Quality, durable, dependable starting pitching is difficult to find. Lynn would fill an immediate need in both teams’ rotations – the Yankees’ rotation already needed help before Michael Pineda went down with Tommy John surgery – and he would make sense to sign in the offseason considering that both teams easily have the money and will definitely be looking to win immediately beyond 2017.

From the Cardinals’ perspective…oh boy is this going to be fun.

Both the Yankees’ and Dodgers’ farm systems are loaded, but I believe the deal more feasibly gets done with the Dodgers as the trade partner. For one, the Yankees have already given up Blake Rutherford and others to trade for a Todd Frazier package and they could be hesitant to give up even more future talent for more rentals. However, if the Cardinals can manage to net Justus Sheffield or Chance Adams in return for Lynn, that would be ideal.

As for the Dodgers, they haven’t made any moves yet and maintain that the team they put out on the field right now is plenty good enough to win the World Series. However, staring down the barrel of being without Kershaw for possibly 6 weeks and with the Diamondbacks and Rockies hot on their trail, starting pitching is needed and the iron is hot.

Does that mean that the Dodgers will panic and give up Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler for Lynn? No, that seems excessive, but neither of those guys are players the Cardinals should target. Willie Calhoun makes much more sense.

Minor League Baseball: Arizona Fall League-Fall Stars Game
Photo courtesy of Los Angeles Dodgers

Could demanding a Calhoun for Lynn trade still seem excessive from the Dodgers’ end? Absolutely, but he’s the guy the Cardinals should have earmarked in this potential trade.

Calhoun is currently wrecking Triple-A to the tune of a .965 OPS with 22 homers and 65 RBI’s and the bat is an asset. He’ll be ready to contribute immediately in 2018 and getting him in return for Lynn would be a steal for the Cardinals.

I’m probably overvaluing Lance Lynn right now, but the need for starting pitching is dire for contending teams right now and the starting pitching market appears dry. Other than Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray – who will both cost a fortune of talent – the trade market for starting pitchers is weak at best. Lynn has definite value and the Cardinals need to capitalize on that value while the need is there for some teams.

After trading Lynn, I’m left with Michael Wacha, Randal Grichuk and Seung Hwan-Oh as the only remaining players in my ‘sell’ pile. I don’t think any Cardinal fan needs a reminder that Oh has struggled this year, so I’m not even going to pretend like I can move him for any future value players. I’ll keep him in St. Louis, let him play out his deal and then go from there.

But Wacha and Grichuk? I’ve got a few ideas.

While the two of them do seem to be having down years, there is a lot of value between Wacha and Grichuk, so I want to package them together. Neither of them are rentals in any way, as Wacha has 3 more years of team control after 2017 and Grichuk has 4 more years of control. Both in their age 26 season, it’s reasonable to expect each of those team controlled years to be of prime production.

So what kind of team would want two young, controllable, productive players? Both Wacha and Grichuk strike me as players that don’t fit in on a winning team right now, but will be focal points in a year or two. This means that the kind of team interested in Grichuk and Wacha would have to be a rebuilding club, but not a club in a full rebuild. Someone like the Angels, the Twins, Rangers or Mariners. However, the Angels don’t have any pieces I like, the Twins just made a trade for Jaime Garcia, the Rangers appear to be in sell mode, and the Mariners just gave up a top prospect to the Cardinals already so let’s leave them alone for now.

None of those teams make perfect sense, so let’s head down to the Braves and make a deal with them because they make perfect sense.

Firstly, from the Braves perspective, they have never viewed themselves as truly rebuilding. With the opening of a new park this year, Atlanta tried to put out as competitive a team as possible to break in SunTrust Park instead of buying into a full rebuild. But, while still doing that, the Braves have stacked up their farm system and will be loaded in two or three years.

Wacha and Grichuk, being young and controllable, make sense in the mold of Atlanta’s rebuild. They can both help right now while still being around for the completion of the rebuild project. Grichuk and Wacha both slide right into Atlanta’s current team and help to accelerate the rebuild process.

For the Cardinals, we’re gonna keep looking for players that can help win in 2018. One name from the Braves’ system come to mind; Sean Newcomb.

sean newcomb
Photo courtesy of Atlanta Braves

Newcomb has already come up and had a cup of coffee with the big club and although he struggled, the stuff is outstanding from the left side. A high 90’s fastball combined with a hammer curveball have produced 75 K’s in 56 IP at Triple-A this year. As stacked as the Cardinals’ farm system is with pitching, there aren’t any top quality left handed starters. Newcomb fits that bill perfectly.

A Michael Wacha and Randal Grichuk for Sean Newcomb trade would serve the Cardinals and Braves both well and would continue the necessary ‘Tyler O’Neill’ trend in St. Louis.

So, after all the dust has settled, let’s take a look at the work we’ve done.

Kolten Wong is an Oakland Athletic in exchange for 3B Matt Chapman. Jedd Gyorko and Trevor Rosenthal have both been sent to Tampa Bay for SS Willy Adames. I’m making an executive decision here and sending Lance Lynn to the Los Angeles Dodgers in return for Willie Calhoun. And a Michael Wacha + Randal Grichuk package has been shipped to Atlanta in exchange for Sean Newcomb.

These 4 deals combined with the Tyler O’Neill trade that I based these articles on create a clear direction for the Cardinals and put them in prime position to win in 2018 and beyond.

Matt Chapman slides in at 3rd base with Gyorko gone. Willy Adames takes the reigns at SS while bumping Paul DeJong over to 2nd base. With Lynn and Wacha now out of the rotation, the way is cleared for Luke Weaver and Sean Newcomb. Calhoun stays down at Triple-A for now, but he’ll hit his way up soon and create some fantastic outfield depth.

My way certainly isn’t the only way for the Cardinals do go about their trade deadline business, but I believe it’s pretty darn effective. Here’s hoping Mike Girsch can come up with a plan as good as one created by an unexperienced kid that works retail and still believes that ERA is more important than FIP.

Happy deadline week!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan

More Tyler O’Neill’s: A Sequel

Looking for More Tyler O’Neill’s

About 3 weeks ago, when the Cardinals initially announced that they would be promoting John Mozeliak to President of Baseball Operations and that Mike Girsch would be taking over Mozeliak’s former role as General Manager, my initial reaction was one of hope.

I believe that Mozeliak’s approach as GM had become stale and passed over. His ‘win now, but protect the future’ thinking model had led to an average Major League team and an average farm system, leaving the Cardinals stuck in an awkward spot entering 2017. That awkward spot has brought St. Louis to a 47-50 record thus far and left the team without a clear direction for the future.

When Mozeliak’s promotion was announced, I was hopeful because I figured that a new set of hands on the Cardinals could bring some direction to the team. Girsch’s first significant trade as General Manager happened on Friday afternoon, shipping out Marco Gonzales to Seattle in exchange for Tyler O’Neill.

The move has gotten rave reviews from all corners of Cardinal nation thus far, and for good reason.

Gonzales, at 25 years old and coming off of an entire missed season because of Tommy John surgery, had been passed up on all sides within the organization as a pitching prospect. Once viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter, Gonzales had become expendable as the incredible wealth of Cardinal pitching talent has unfortunately flown by him during his missed injury time.

Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Luke Weaver, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and others are now viewed as far more valuable than Gonzales. Capitalizing on the value that Gonzales still had, Girsch managed to net a top OF prospect from Seattle in return for him.

Tyler O’Neill immediately jumps to the front of the line among Cardinal outfield prospects, and he was acquired in exchange for a position that St. Louis had depth from. It was a textbook trade executed brilliantly by Grisch.

And while a prospect for prospect deal doesn’t particularly seem like it designates a clear direction for the Cardinals, this particular deal provides a valuable start to a pivotal trade deadline for the St. Louis front office.

Considering where they are right now, the approach that I believe the Cardinals need to take during this deadline is giving up on 2017 while building to win in 2018. It’s both buying and selling, but avoiding rentals at all costs; specific and difficult, but necessary.

The Tyler O’Neill trade fits this bill almost to a ’t’. O’Neill is a future asset that the Cardinals have long term control over, but can realistically be counted on to help the big club win in 2018. And he was acquired for practically nothing in the big picture of the St. Louis system. So what are some other Tyler O’Neill-esque trades that the Cardinals can make before the July 31 deadline?

I’ve got some ideas.

The thing the Cardinals need to do in order to successfully execute a ‘sell for 2017 but buy for 2018’ trade deadline is know the players that are expendable. In the ‘sell’ pile, I’ve placed Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Seung Hwan-Oh, Kolten Wong, Trevor Rosenthal, and Randal Grichuk.

Out of those listed, the most valuable trade asset the Cardinals possess is Wong. A plus defender still yet to enter his prime and controllable for another 3 years after 2017 at a team friendly salary of $5 million per season. Wong’s potential surplus value (the difference between the value of his projected WAR versus actual salary) is immense and serves as an attractive piece for a team like Oakland.

So that’s where we’ll look to start this. Who can the Cardinals gain from Oakland in exchange for Kolten Wong?

Matt Chapman.

Matt Chapman
Photo by Getty Images

A Kolten Wong for Matt Chapman trade serves the Cardinals (and Oakland A’s) beautifully. With Jed Lowrie under contract and struggling defensively at 2nd base, the A’s gain a cheap 2nd baseman that slots right in and allows Lowrie to slide into more of a classic Oakland platoon role. The deal also fully clears the way at 3rd base for Ryon Healy, having a breakout season and needing at bats to stay consistent.

As for the Cardinals, Chapman is the type of piece they need; not ready right now, but has near future 4-5 WAR potential. He plays a top quality defensive 3rd base, (Fangraphs has him at a future 60 on the 20-80 scale for both arm and glove) and the power is legit. His career ISO in the minor leagues is a robust .231, highlighted by a .331 mark at Triple-A this season with 16 home runs in only 204 at bats.

Chapman has struggled at the major league level this year, but has the kind of difference making bat that the Cardinals could realistically count on to produce in 2018. And although this is a much bigger subject to be discussed deeper on a different day, I prefer Paul DeJong as the future 2nd baseman of the Cardinals over Kolten Wong anyway.

Now, the one problem with a trade for Matt Chapman is that it creates a logjam over at 3rd base for the Cardinals with Jedd Gyorko currently playing at a high level. So, instead of letting Mike Matheny decide this (please fire him anyway and solve ALL the problems), let’s see what we can get for Gyorko, shall we?

According to defensive runs saved, Jedd Gyorko has been the second best defensive 3rd baseman in all of baseball only trailing the immortal Nolan Arenado. Combine that with a 117 WRC+ over 343 AB’s and you have a player on pace for a 5 WAR season while under contract for only $6 million.

Gyorko is signed for the next two years at $9 million and $13 million, and when considering the production he’s posted over the last two seasons and the current market value for a win, he’s a bargain buy.

The exact kind of bargain buy that the Tampa Bay Rays create the base of their franchise off of.

From the Rays perspective, Gyorko is an attractive piece; controllable, cheap and versatile. He could slide in to provide production from a 2nd base position that has posted a combined 0.1 WAR between Daniel Robertson and Brad Miller. He could slide in at 3rd base when Evan Longoria needs a day off. He’ll be ready to help a currently playoff bound Rays team win right now and he’ll still be around for another 2 years to help a young team still win in the future.

From the Cardinals perspective, Chapman makes Gyorko expendable and the Rays have an overflowing fountain of talent that fits the current trade deadline blueprint. I’ve got my eye on one guy, though.

Willy Adames.

Willy Adames
Photo by USA Today

Now, considering the type of franchise the Rays are, giving up their top prospect in exchange for a 28 year old utility guy makes no sense. And that’s why the Cardinals also throw Trevor Rosenthal into the deal.

Under contract for next season in his final year of arbitration, Rosenthal gives the Rays another bullpen weapon as they close in on October. Now, bullpen arms and quality infielders aren’t a position of strength for the Cardinals so this doesn’t technically qualify as a ‘Tyler O’Neill’ trade, but it’s two expendable pieces being traded for a quality prospect at a position of need in 2018.

From the Cardinals’ perspective, Adames becomes the anointed shortstop of the future. Is it fair to move on from Aledmys Diaz so quickly? Absolutely not, but I’m in the business of winning baseball games, and Willy Adames helps me do that more effectively, fairness be damned.

Adames is another part of the generation of bigger shortstops, listed at 6’1” and 200 lbs. His power grades out as a future 60 (according to Fangraphs), and while he’s never been known for his glove, the defense has markedly improved between 2015 and 2017 to the point where he is now a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball.

Currently at Triple-A, he falls almost exactly into the same mold as O’Neill and Chapman; not quite ready yet, but will be in 2018 and beyond.

Trades for Matt Chapman and Willy Adames sets the Cardinals infield for 2018, with those two manning the left side of the diamond while Paul DeJong and Matt Carpenter hold down the right side of the infield. Young, athletic, and massive power potential.

With the amount of pitching talent that is about to tear it’s way up to the Major League team, the Cardinals aren’t far away from being the type of winning team that they are used to being. These two trades give St. Louis an even clearer sense of direction heading into 2018 and I haven’t even touched players like Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn or Randal Grichuk, which leaves St. Louis with the pieces to still go pull off a blockbuster deal for somebody like Christian Yelich.

This trade deadline is as pivotal as any I can ever remember to the Cardinals’ future and it needs to be executed with a clear sense of purpose for the team to be successful in the future. Tyler O’Neill was just the start, but more trades like that are exactly what the doctor ordered.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan

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